What To Know
- On the Moon, humans can receive a a thousand times higher dose of solar radiation than that received by a person on Earth during a massive solar flare.
- This worrying level is expected to arrive in 2026, the same year as the Artemis 3 mission which was initially planned for the end of 2025.
- NASA will send the first humans to the Moon, but also has the ambition to establish a base there in order to settle there in the long term by 2030.
The solar cycle is soon reaching its peak, and is expected to coincide with the manned missions of the Artemis program. At the forefront of concerns for astronauts are massive solar flares, which are expected to increase in intensity.
A very real risk of death
First of all, let us recall that solar flares are explosions on the surface of the Sun which occur when magnetic field lines of sunspots become entangled. In December 2023, the most powerful solar flare since 2017classified as X2.8. In May 2024, occurred a huge eruption even more intenseclassified X5.8, accompanied by three other eruptions with a peak having reached X8.7. It should be noted that the emission of energetic particles by the Sun raises the greatest concerns. By penetrating human flesh, these particles in fact promote the appearance of cancers. Now, this important danger is taken into account in the space domain and more precisely, in the Artemis program. This concern mainly concerns Artemis 3 mission which will mark the return of humans to the Moon. On the Moon, humans can receive a a thousand times higher dose of solar radiation than that received by a person on Earth during a massive solar flare. However, this is a dose ten times greater than what is recommended, so the risk of death does exist.
Artistic concept of the Venturi Astrolab FLEX lunar rover driving on the lunar surface with astronauts on board. Credits: Astrolab
Enabling astronauts to anticipate and protect themselves against solar flares
As explained in a detailed article published by The Conversation On June 13, 2024, the 11.2-year solar cycle approaches its peak. It should be noted that when the Sun’s level is at its maximum, no less than a twenty large streams of energetic particles can be generated each year. However, this worrying level is expected to arrive in 2026, the same year as the Artemis 3 mission which was initially planned for the end of 2025. NASA will send the first humans to the Moon, but also has the ambition to establish a base there in order to settle there in the long term by 2030. However, on the lunar surface, there are many dangers, including cosmic rays, solar radiation and lunar earthquakes. The American agency financed in 2023 the creation of space weather centers the CLEAR Space Weather Center of Excellence, to be as prepared as possible. The predictions from these centers are intended to allow astronauts to anticipate and protect themselves, especially against solar flares. Predicting Earth’s weather is already difficult, and accurately predicting when massive solar flares will occur is even more difficult. During such an event, solar particles arrive on Earth in about an hour. In other words, the CLEAR centers will have to find a way to predict these flares by 2026. with sufficient time margin. In fact, this will allow astronauts on the Moon to be warned in advance so that they can take shelter.
